The Aid Package for Ukraine: 6 Months that Feels Like 6 Years

Written by Oleksiy Goncharenko MP, European Solidarity, President of the PACE Committee on Migration

This week, the U.S. House of Representatives, followed by the Senate, voted in favour of an aid package for Ukraine and other allies. The House vote was 311 in favour, 112 against. The Senate voted 79 in favour and 18 against. During the voting, there were many Ukrainian flags in the hall – the support for Ukraine is quite strong. But despite this, its approval was blocked for 6 months. This delay took many of our soldiers’ lives and caused serious problems at the frontline.

Ukraine’s losses during these 6 months

The 6-month delay has had a major impact on the Ukrainian military – a shortage of ammunition and a lack of equipment. And worst of all, the increase in human losses. All of this forced us to go into a complete defence. The Russians are advancing in all areas of the frontline and are having success in some places.

The Avdiivka sector is the most difficult – due to insufficient counter-battery work and the inability to counter Russian aviation, the city was lost. And the worst part is that our military had to retreat to almost unfortified positions outside the city, which caused even greater human and territorial losses. According to the Ukrainian General Staff of the Armed Forces, the Russians lost about 47,000 people in Avdiivka killed and wounded. Zelenskyy, in turn, stated that the ratio of losses in Avdiivka was: 1 Ukrainian to 7 Russians. That is, almost 7,000 Ukrainians were killed or wounded in the battles for Avdiivka that have been going on for the past 6 months. This means that at least 1,100 Ukrainians died per month. But it should be noted that this data is purely from the city of Avdiivka, and it may not be very accurate yet, because there are still soldiers who were captured. And there are also missing persons, who may be either alive or dead. So, most likely, the numbers are much higher than the official calculations suggest. This is the bloody price for this delay.

The problem of Ukraine becoming part of U.S. domestic policy

If we analyze the voting of the House of Representatives, we see a large number of Republicans who voted against. A little more than half. This points to the key problem of such a long delay – insufficient work on the perception of Ukraine by Republicans. This is something we, as a country, must work on. After all, we are the ones who need help, and we need to communicate properly with American congressmen and their electorates.

In general, Ukraine’s global problem is that we have become part of the American political game. We have become part of elections and political technologies. There is an attempt to divide American voters and say that helping Ukraine is a blow to the United States. Ukraine is being shown as a corrupt, undemocratic, and bad country that should not be helped. And this is a lesson for us. We have lost one of the important battles – to stay out of domestic American politics.

Why did this happen? It is quite difficult to find an answer here. One of the reasons is the lack of experience and ability to lobby for our interests in the United States. It is only in recent years that we have come to understand the role and importance of diplomacy, alliances, and strategic partners. And this understanding is being given to us through tragic events.

Russian propaganda also played a big role. For the past two years, Americans have been continuously told about the oppression of Christianity in Ukraine. This is a topic that resonates with voters of the Republican Party, and therefore such news has influenced Republican congressmen. But it is important to state that this is a complete lie of Russian propaganda. Before the full-scale invasion of Russia, 7,170 Protestant associations found refuge in Ukraine. Now Ukraine remains the largest evangelical country in Europe, with 800,000 to 1 million people attending Protestant churches every Sunday, which is the reason why Ukraine was named the “Bible Belt” of Eastern Europe.

Gradually, for these reasons, as well as for several others, Ukraine became a bargaining chip in the internal American political game. And each of these reasons can be fixed quite easily. Starting with corruption (which is not so huge compared to other countries) and ending with the fictional persecution of Christianity.

What to expect on the frontline after the package was voted through?

The weapons are believed to have started moving toward Ukraine almost immediately after Biden signed the law. According to some reports, the weapons are already on the outskirts of Ukraine’s borders, so everything should be done quickly. Nevertheless, the situation at the front, which arose due to a lack of funding and weapons, will continue for some time, as it is impossible to deliver everything to the front immediately. And the Russians have been advancing for more than five months. According to many forecasts, they are preparing a powerful offensive for the end of May-beginning of June. By that time, we will most likely have Western weapons. But for now, it is difficult to predict the development of events at the frontline.

The future of war

Over the past six months, Ukraine has paid with the lives of its best sons. Ukraine has survived such a difficult period only thanks to the Ukrainian military, who gave their lives defending the entire civilized world on the strength of their enthusiasm alone. But despite this, the expectations and work of diplomats and negotiators have paid off. The package passed by Congress has now been signed by President Biden. It is also important to note that the United States has finally sent a clear signal to Putin that Ukraine will not be left alone with the aggressor.

The fact that the House of Representatives passed this package with Trump’s approval is also a clear hint to the Kremlin. In addition to sending messages to our enemies, this package sends a clear psychological signal to our European allies. They should also increase their support, because only through joint efforts can the goals be achieved. Now, of course, it will be a little easier on the frontline, despite the overall complexity and the Russian offensive. But the war is not over. This package only wins us time, but it does not win the war. Plenty of work remains ahead.