A New Era for Russia?

Written by IDU member party Union of Right Forces’ Chairman Leonid Gozman.

The situation in Russia escalated sharply on January 17, 2020, when, unexpectedly for the authorities, Alexei Navalny returned to Moscow from Germany. Of all possible responses, Putin chose the worst: several dozen of Navalny’s supporters who came to meet him at the airport were arrested, the plane landed at another airport, and Navalny was immediately taken into custody. Navalny’s court appearance, which took place the next day in a context of several violations, resulted in him being jailed for 30 days and several charges being brought against him, which could result in lengthy prison terms.

On January 23, 2020, massive protests took place in Russia, comparable in number only to those that occurred in our country in 2011-2012. They were held simultaneously in almost two hundred cities, and people of different ages and different socio-demographic groups took part in them. Roughly half of the protesters who came out did so for the first time in their lives. An unprecedented number of people in Russia’s regions protested despite the fact that most of the organizers of the events had been arrested the day before.

The police behaved almost as harshly as in Minsk. Almost four thousand people were arrested in one day, and many were charged with criminal offences.

Several conclusions can be drawn from what is happening in Russia in recent days:

1. Navalny became, in fact, the only oppositional alternative to Putin. Like Mandela or Walesa in their time, both the world and his own country see him as an alternative to the current president. If he is not killed (the likelihood of such a development of events, unfortunately, is not zero), then the chances that he will lead Russia are very high.
2. Concurrently, it should be understood that, despite a large-scale campaign of support for Navalny, as long as Russia is ruled by Putin, he will not be released from prison. His release would be perceived as a victory for the protest, and Putin will never agree to that.
3. Authorities have ultimately decided on a course to intensify repression. We should expect a harsh suppression of protests and of any political activity, declaring unwanted citizens “enemies of the people,” persecuting dissidents, and strengthening control over mass media.
4. Authorities realize that, even with an extremely high level of manipulation of elections and falsification of their results, they can no longer provide themselves the necessary level of control over the legislative bodies. Therefore, it cannot be ruled out that the elections in the State Duma, which are to be held in September 2021, could be cancelled under some pretext.
5. In international politics, an increase in isolation and hostility towards the West is inevitable. We cannot rule out any new adventures that the Russian leadership can carry out with the aim of rallying the population to repel an external enemy.
6. There is no confrontation and split within civilians in the country; opposition-minded citizens do not oppose other citizens, but rather Putin’s bureaucracy itself. For the most part, Putin’s voters are passive and not ready to defend him. During the entire eventful week of January 17^th to 23^rd, there were no civil actions in the country in support of the current president.
7. The political confrontation has turned into a moral confrontation. The lies, the hypocrisy and the corruption of authorities tested the patience of the active part of the citizens of Russia. The oppositional segment of society is not so much in favour of reforming certain institutions, as in favour of a return to morality. Concurrently, the level of rejection of authorities is so high that, in fact, citizens do not demand negotiations and compromises, as was the case in 2011-2012, but a radical change of the regime and its withdrawal from the political arena. In this sense, the situation can be called revolutionary, similar to the one that developed in the USSR and in countries of the Warsaw bloc in the late eighties and early nineties of the last century.
8. The situation in Russia cannot change during the elections – the country will inevitably go through a non-legal period. And there are fewer and fewer hopes that the way out of the current systemic crisis will be peaceful.