A Resounding Victory in Madrid’s Regional Election Propels the People’s Party Nationally
Written by IDU member People’s Party’s International Secretary Valentina Martínez Ferro.
On May 4th, the People’s Party (PP) swept to an overwhelming victory in the Madrid regional election, upending the course of Spanish politics. The PP doubled its result from just two years ago, with nearly 45% of the vote, compared to 22% in 2019. The three left-wing parties that obtained representation in the Madrid regional parliament received a combined 41% of the vote, with 9% for Vox, the populist far-right party.
The election was called by regional president Isabel Díaz Ayuso on March 10th, after her coalition agreement with centrist party Ciudadanos broke down. Pedro Sánchez, Spain’s Socialist Party prime minister, agreed with Ciudadanos’ national leader to pursue votes of no confidence against a series of PP regional governments. The PP’s national leadership team, headed by party president Pablo Casado, reacted swiftly, stopping the votes of no confidence in Murcia and Castilla y León, and agreeing with Isabel Diaz Ayuso to call for an early election in Madrid.
It quickly became clear how consequential the election would be. Pablo Iglesias, leader of far-left Unidas Podemos and second vice-president of Spain’s government, resigned from his position to stand as his party’s candidate for the Madrid presidency. This was an attempt to mobilize the left and uplift his Unidas Podemos party after poor polling.
The PP responded quickly, creating its now famous campaign slogan, “Communism or Freedom.” The party was accused of hyperbole, but the frame was very much rooted in reality. A left-wing government in Madrid would have required the involvement of Unidas Podemos, which is itself a coalition of parties that includes the Spanish Communist Party. Surprisingly, out of the five current Unidas Podemos ministers in the Spanish government, two are members of the Communist Party.
The second and key element of the choice posed to voters, “Freedom,” symbolized the policies that the PP champions in Madrid. Low tax rates, a pro-business mentality, and freedom of choice in education and health care have led the region to sustained economic growth. The Spanish left was anxious to put an end to this model, frequently accusing the region of a lack of fiscal solidarity for its low taxation approach. However, these policies have proven popular and economically efficient, with PP governments in Castilla y León and Andalucía recently carrying out similar tax cuts.
Crucially, during the pandemic, Díaz Ayuso’s government opted for looser restrictions on economic activities compared to other regions, especially with respect to restaurants. This allowed small business owners to keep their businesses open, and workers to maintain their jobs. At the same time, Madrid sped up mass testing and built a new hospital specialized in pandemic care. For many, the region found the right balance.
Judging by the election results, it is clear that voters in Madrid recognise the success of PP policies and were wary that the left would reverse them. Díaz Ayuso, who has proven herself a superb political talent after Pablo Casado unexpectedly recommended her as the PP’s candidate in Madrid back in 2019, ran on a platform of continued tax reductions and small government. She argued that people went to Madrid to be left alone and told voters that life in the region consisted of fighting, waking up early and struggling, making it a difficult but thrilling experience. This meritocratic vision resonated with voters.
After receiving just under 17% of the vote, the leaders of the Socialist Party insisted that the result in Madrid is not representative of the rest of Spain. However, the PP’s victory was not confined to its traditional strongholds. Instead, it was extended to the totality of the region. The PP won 177 of the 179 municipalities in Madrid, and all 21 districts of the capital, including those that have historically voted for the left. Add a historical voter turnout of 76.25% (12 percentage points more than two years ago), and it is evident that the Socialist Party has a real problem.
In fact, the first national polls carried out after the election show a significant increase in favour of the PP, placing the party first nationally. This is a testament both to the effective opposition carried out by PP national president, Pablo Casado, and to the disastrous policies of the Socialist Party-Unidas Podemos coalition government, led by Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez.
During the pandemic, the Spanish government has failed to provide much-needed relief to the most damaged sectors of the economy, refusing to implement policies, such as a temporary VAT reduction, and waiting too long to approve direct aid to dying businesses, which it eventually did, but only after a public outcry. Furthermore, its proposed tax increases could not come at a worst time, Spain becoming the European country to suffer the greatest fall in GDP in 2020, at -10.8%.
Worst of all, the government has attempted to weaken some of the country’s basic institutions. For example, it proposed to lower the parliamentary majority needed to elect the governing body for judges from three-fifths to only 50%. Thankfully, the European Commission stopped the government’s plan, but other public institutions that should remain independent have not been so fortunate. For example, the public pollster, Centro de Investigaciones Sociológicas, has been entirely politicized, being the only pollster to predict a majority for the left in the Madrid election. Without independent controls, the European Next Generation funds will be handled in a similar manner.
In contrast, more and more Spaniards now realize that Pablo Casado offers the most viable alternative to form a solid and compelling government. His vision, based on liberal values, on the rule of law, and on the creation of jobs and economic opportunities, will provide the stability and optimism that the country desperately needs. That centre-right voters, convinced of the need to defeat Sánchez, have converged around the PP in Madrid is a crucial step towards the reunification of the political centre-right, a precondition to a victory in the next general election. Such a victory is looking increasingly likely by the day.