Knockdown Near Kursk
Written by Leonid Gozman, Chairman, Union of Right Forces, Russia
Ukraine’s operation in the Kursk region of Russia is causing Vladimir Putin damage comparable only to his aborted overthrow by a group of Prigozhin’s criminals. Back then, he showed cowardice and confusion. I will not evaluate the military aspect of what is happening near Kursk, especially since the consequences of this action go far beyond purely military ones. I want to talk about the psychological and political aspects of what is going on in the region.
This is a blow to Putin’s prestige among the people, the elites, and others across the world. The Kremlin is unlikely to care about the attitude of the general population towards Putin. There are no elections in Russia, and citizens have no opportunity to transform their discontent into political change. However, the attitude of the elites is fundamental. From the very beginning of his quarter-century rule, Putin did not have electoral legitimacy. He once had charismatic legitimacy, but that is long gone. He is not an elected president or a people’s leader; he rules as a Godfather, as the head of a mafia that includes the so-called “top ten thousand” – heads of the secret services, army generals, senior officials, and the largest oligarchs.
However, it is they who can now see that he is incapable of fulfilling the main duty of the country’s leader – to protect his land. Foreign troops are on Russian territory for the first time since World War II, and it is the first invasion in the world’s history of a country that possesses nuclear weapons. Taking all this, combined with Putin’s sluggish and clearly inadequate reaction to what happened, cannot but give rise to doubts among the elites about his suitability for the post he holds.
The blow dealt to Putin by the Ukrainians is especially traumatic because it destroys one of the basic myths of Soviet and Russian culture – the myth of the inviolability of borders. The idea of a besieged fortress has always been popular in Russia. Field Marshal Minich, during the reign of Alexander III, said that Russia’s only allies were its army and navy. The Bolsheviks took this idea of Russia’s hostility to the entire surrounding world to the level of complete absurdity. Within the framework of these ideas, the country’s borders are not demarcation lines, but something sacred, separating their kingdom of good and light from the rest of the evil and hostile world. Therefore, Russia’s borders are always in danger and need constant, intense protection.
Despite the totality of such propaganda, Russian authorities failed to prepare their people to expect an imminent attack from the West. For example, at the time of the NATO expansion in the Nineties, most of the population believed that the threat (albeit small) came not from the Western borders, but from the South – from either China or Islamic countries. However, the citizens of the USSR, and then of Russia, certainly believed that their borders were absolutely protected; no enemy would ever break through them.
However, it turned out that belief was incorrect. Ukrainian troops went through like a knife through butter. During the days of Prigozhin’s rebellion, it suddenly became clear that the various Rosgvardiya were good at fighting only peaceful demonstrators and did not want to act against armed bandits. Now, it turns out that there is nothing to respond to a real threat and that Russian generals are ready to attack other countries, but not to defend their own.
The impact of the events in the Kursk region on the international perception of Putin’s activities is also very serious. The obvious weakness shown by both the country’s Armed Forces and, most importantly, its leader, undermines the intimidating image of Putin that he has worked to create for many years. There is a chance that the West will now be somewhat less afraid of him than before (at least, people like me would like to hope so). His partners in the fight against Western civilization – Kim Jong-un, the Iranian Ayatollah, and others – may wonder whether they need such an ally.
The longer Putin remains silent or says something incomprehensible, the longer his Ministry of Defence talks about the losses of the Ukrainians, but cannot, at the same time, regain a single village they occupied, the weaker and more unreliable Putin’s power becomes. Putin understands that he needs to react somehow. Of course, those responsible will be identified. Judging by the fact that he entrusted the management of the operation in the Kursk region to Federal Security Service (FSB) Director Alexander Bortnikov, the army generals’ eyes will roll. The FSB is responsible for intelligence, and therefore for the complete lack of preparedness for a strike from Ukraine. Nevertheless, they are Putin’s own, and he never touches them. However, the demonstrative punishment of the generals (and at the same time the imprisonment of several more dissidents for long terms – he does this at every war escalation) will not help restore his image.
He must regain the territories (now, as you read this, he may have already regained them). But to do this, he must fight. Putin is obviously short of resources. Additionally, there are rumours about the urgent return of the Wagner PMC bandits from Africa, about the readiness to use the Alpha anti-terror group in battles, and so on. Regardless, let’s say he finds troops.
We all know how Russian generals “liberate” cities – by razing them to the ground. For example, look at what is left of Bakhmut, Avdiivka, or Grozny, Vladimir Putin’s first war. Now, he will destroy populated areas in the very centre of historical Russia, probably, together with the people who remain there. Many will remain. The state of emergency, as well as the partial evacuation, were declared late. The conditions in temporary accommodation centres are terrible, and they promised as much as ten thousand rubles (one hundred dollars) in compensation! The people are mostly poor, where would they go from their homes, livestock, and everything they had acquired?
However, if the ousting of the Ukrainians does take place, but takes a long time (actually, now, at the time of writing this text, a whole week has already passed), then too do restoring Putin’s prestige among the elites and his intimidating image in the world take longer. Regaining the territories will not be enough. Something else will be needed. Like a gang leader losing power, he will have to do something especially terrible and cruel.
It could be another war – an attack on Moldova, Georgia, Poland, or one of the Baltic States in the hope that Article 5 of the NATO Charter will remain just a declaration. However, does he have the strength for a new war? It seems that he does not, although if I were the governments of these countries, I would not relax. He is already crazy; he can start a war even without resources. Putin could do anything such as using nuclear weapons on the territory of Ukraine, which he has been constantly threatening in recent months. With nuclear weapons, too, not everything is clear. Firstly, no one knows whether he has a combat-ready nuclear arsenal, that is, are the hundreds and thousands of nuclear charges he constantly talks about ready for combat use? Judging by how corruption and total irresponsibility are destroying arsenals of conventional weapons, no one can answer this question in advance. Secondly, will he dare to do this? He cannot help but understand that retaliation for a heinous act will be more than likely, and he really wants to live. Look at the security measures such as how he hid in a bunker during the pandemic and the long tables that do not allow even his close employees to get close to him. Although, again, one should not calm down. In despair and hysteria, a person is capable of a lot. Finally, will his team allow him to act? It is also impossible to answer this question in advance.
In any case, we must proceed from the fact that now Putin, like a wounded animal, is especially dangerous. Be prepared!