What is going on in Sweden? – A Political Update
Written by Gustaf Göthberg, Jarl Hjalmarson Foundation, Sweden.
After seven years as head of Sweden’s government, Stefan Lofven announced in mid-August that he intended to step down as Prime Minister and Leader of the Social Democratic party at the party’s next congress in November. This surprise move came after several months of political turmoil in Swedish politics, eventually leading to the ousting and, some weeks later, to the re-instalment of Lofven as head of government.
The Social Democrats won the general elections in 2014, effectively leading to the resignation of the centre-right government led by Moderate party leader Fredrik Reinfeldt. The Social Democrats, led by former trade unionist Stefan Lofven, formed a fragile government in coalition with the minor Green party. After the general elections in 2018, none of the traditional blocs had gained a majority in the Swedish Parliament. Lofven was ousted in a vote of no confidence immediately after the elections, being the first prime minister ever in Swedish history to face that outcome.
Since none of the blocs would accept the parliamentary support from either the former Communist party nor the right-populist Sweden Democrats, the situation eventually became locked and halted. The leader of the Moderate party, Ulf Kristersson, suggested he might form a small cabinet with only the Moderate party, attempting to balance the different majorities in parliament by seeking support from anyone who might back different reforms and laws, based on the issue. This proposal was rejected by former centre-right government parties, the Liberals and the Centre party. Following three months of negotiations, the Speaker of the Swedish Parliament appointed Stefan Lofven as Prime Minister-Designate in January 2019, and summoned the Parliament to vote for him shortly thereafter.
By cooperating with the liberal parties in the political centre, though not allowing them in Cabinet, Lofven succeeded in creating the necessary majority for his government with the Green party. Meanwhile, he negotiated separately with the left party, giving them substantial influence over the government’s economic policy and thereby securing their support. At the same time, the Liberals and the Centre party negotiated a reform agenda with Lofven and the Greens, famously known as the “January Agreement.” The agreement’s first clause stated that the parties voided all the left party’s influence over Swedish politics. Ultimately, this was a deal that no one believed in, defended, or could logically explain. And this led to the political turmoil seen in the summer of 2021 in Sweden.
One reform in the January Agreement was to introduce market rents and free rent-setting in the country. This was a reform that the Social Democrats would rather see be forgotten, and that the Left party heavily opposed, but that was described as a deal-breaker for the Liberal and Centre parties. When the government proceeded with this reform, the Left party called for a vote of no confidence, which was immediately supported by their perpetual enemies in Swedish politics, the Sweden Democrats. The Moderate party and the Christian Democrats eventually supported the motion. As a result of this support, a necessary majority in Parliament was secured. Prime Minister Stefan Lofven and his government were ousted on June 21st.
Since there had been no change in the power distribution, there could be no other solution for the Speaker but to nominate Lofven once again as Prime Minister. This time, the signatories of the January Agreement jointly declared that it had now become obsolete, but that the Centre party would not vote against Prime Minister-Designate Lofven. On July 9th, Stefan Lofven was deemed “tolerated” by the Swedish Parliament (Sweden practices a system of so-called negative parliamentarianism, meaning that the Prime Minister-Designate merely has to be tolerated by Parliament and, can secure office as long as a majority does not vote against them).
After a summer in which almost everyone tried to contemplate the mess that had taken place in June, Stefan Lofven made his announcement regarding his upcoming resignation in November. Only a month since being re-installed, he indicated that he now thought it would be the appropriate time to step down. With only a year left until the general elections in 2022, analysts have explained that the Social Democrats – whose election results in 2018 were at an all-time low – now need a reboot.
The Prime Minister will hand in his resignation to the Speaker in November. The very same month, Parliament will vote on the state budget, which is normally negotiated during the fall. The leading figure of the negotiations, Minister of Finance Magdalena Andersson, holds a key role in attempting to find a parliamentary majority for the social democratic budget, but also in finding a political message to the Swedish electorate that is perceived as viable. With seven years of rising unemployment, soaring gun violence, and failures related to the handling of the covid-19 pandemic, the Social Democrats are desperate to try to distance themselves from the political failures of their own policies. Apparently, the Social Democrats believe that Magdalena Andersson could be the key figure to sort through all these issues, as she is now the leading candidate to become the party’s next leader. However, it remains to be seen whether she is to become the next – and Sweden’s first female – Prime Minister. She would first need to be tolerated by Parliament. And if she asks her eventual predecessor, this will be no easy task.