National Planning, the Big Picture and Horizon Scanning – Israeli Innovative AI-Driven approach
Written by Gila Gamliel,MK, Minister of Intelligence, Israel
Situation Assessment is a thinking framework that helps governments understand the challenges and opportunities they face, as well as their strengths and weaknesses, when dealing with a complex reality characterized by uncertainty, ambiguity, and rapid change. Understanding the “big picture” that’s made up of trends, mega-trends, phenomena, and their convergences, provides strategic planners and decision-makers with a broader, cross-disciplinary context to analyze variables that can shape the various systems they are responsible for. Combining the big picture and the downwards situation report facilitates forward-looking planning that can reduce the probability of failings of situation assessment.
Decades of public service in various challenging ministerial positions have highlighted for me the need to improve my intuitive-based understanding of influential future transformations. Strengthening my perspective through systematic examination processes based on professional knowledge and a broad interdisciplinary view, using real data and advanced analytical analysis, is necessary. In my opinion, the Horizon Scanning approach is an appropriate answer to this challenge.
The Horizon Scanning mechanism is an operational tool that provides a systematic search, locating and identifying early signs of significant potential developments. These could be weak signs (or initial signs), trends, developments, chronic problems, risks, and threats, including matters that are at the margins of current fields of thought and interest, which challenge contemporary assumptions. This mechanism has been implemented for more than a decade in a few future-oriented developed countries and international organizations, including Singapore, Canada, the US, the UK, the EU, and the OECD.
Driven by Israel’s commitment to proactive decision-making, in 2017, the Israeli Ministry of Intelligence began the process of establishing a national mechanism for Horizon Scanning, embarking on an ambitious mission to establish a comprehensive Horizon Scanning framework. The Israeli government has fostered collaboration among diverse intelligence agencies, the national security community, and government departments, exemplifying Israel’s commitment to a holistic and interdisciplinary understanding of trends and challenges that transcend traditional boundaries. This inter-agency synergy is intended to yield significant insights in the fields of national security, geo-strategic competition between superpowers, and transformations in the global economy, global warming, societal change, disruptive technologies, ideologies, and beliefs.
Rooted in Israel’s ethos of innovation, the Ministry of Intelligence promoted a vision of incorporating emerging AI abilities into routine futurist practices, pioneering the approach that leverages the power of artificial intelligence (AI) for Horizon Scanning. A critical pillar of Israel’s innovative approach is the establishment of a dedicated research laboratory staffed by a team of skilled data scientists. Armed with cutting- edge machine learning technologies, this lab intricately analyzes vast datasets culled from a variety of sources, including inputs from member ministries and independent horizon scanning initiatives. This data-driven “informed governance” approach underscores Israel’s unwavering emphasis on evidence-based decision-making, resonating with Israel’s unyielding dedication to safeguarding its citizens. It also echoes the values of responsible governance and public security, propelling the nation to the forefront of anticipating emerging risks and opportunities across a wide spectrum of domains of national resilience.
Recognizing the profound impact of this fusion of AI and Horizon Scanning, I have initiated a series of AI projects in my current position as Israeli Intelligence Minister that are supposed to be a leap forward in mechanism capabilities. In part, I am working to turn a modest “laboratory” into a technological research institute. These steps were taken under my personal intention to enhance the capabilities of the Horizon Scanning mechanism as a whole, and its technological component in particular.
The confluence of AI and Horizon Scanning significantly enhances Israel’s agility and adaptability in navigating an increasingly complex global landscape. Powered by continuously learning algorithms fueled by real-time data, Israel’s decision-makers are equipped with actionable insights, enabling timely and well-informed responses to multifaceted challenges, encompassing security threats, economic shifts, technological breakthroughs, emerging economic trends, and environmental changes.
This strategic foresight aligns seamlessly with principles of entrepreneurship, environmental stewardship, and dynamic economic progress, enhancing Israeli competitiveness on a global scale and cultivating an environment conducive to innovation and economic growth, emphasizing the nation’s unwavering commitment to effective governance, strategic leadership, and sustainable progress. In an era marked by unprecedented transformation, Israel’s Horizon Scanning approach, reaffirming its commitment to innovation, security, and prosperity, sets a remarkable precedent for nations aspiring to excel in proactive and data-driven strategic planning.